Move either dial and every number below moves with it. Nothing here is a mock-up: each position of the dials is a separate run of the real engine, computed in advance, so what you read is what the system returns.
At the centre this is exactly what the ten experts answered. Left flattens their judgement towards treating every criterion alike; right keeps their ordering but makes it more pronounced.
At the far left is the data exactly as it stands today: one recorded value per project. Moving right adds repeated readings of the same thing. The panel's judgement does not move with this dial.
Decision-level indicators, read off the run. Every one of them moves with the dials, because every one of them is computed from the same option rows the ranking below is drawn from.
Derived from the panel's comparisons. Moves with the left dial only.
Each option lands in one of five states. The boundaries between them are not written into the product — they are read off this portfolio, and they move when you move a dial.
| Project | Value | Uncertainty | Investment probability | Action |
|---|
Five numbers decided the five states above. Every one of them came from this portfolio; none was typed into the product.
Investment probability, less what the disagreement between judgement and measurement costs. A bar below the line is an option whose conflict outweighs its case.